JOHN KOYLE, AIF®
Alternative Investments in Retirement Portfolios
Real estate, REITs, private credit, commodities, and other alternatives play different roles than stocks and bonds. Understanding what you're actually getting matters more than the category label.
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Section 1: Executive Summary

Alternative investments, those outside the traditional stock and bond categories, have moved from the domain of institutional investors and the ultra-wealthy into the portfolios of sophisticated individual investors. Real estate investment trusts trade on public exchanges with daily liquidity. Private credit funds have become more accessible through interval funds and business development companies. Commodity exposure is available through ETFs. Infrastructure and real assets have entered the investable universe through various structures.

The case for alternatives in a retirement portfolio rests on two potential benefits: diversification through low correlation with traditional assets, and inflation protection through exposure to real assets. Both are genuine in some circumstances and overstated in others. The liquidity risk, fee complexity, and performance variability that accompany most alternative investment structures are real costs that must be weighed against the diversification and inflation benefits.

For retirees who are drawing income from portfolios, the liquidity dimension of alternatives deserves particular attention. A retirement portfolio that is partially illiquid creates a forced selling problem during downturns: the liquid assets must fund withdrawals even when their prices are most depressed, because the illiquid alternatives cannot be tapped on short notice. Understanding the specific liquidity terms of any alternative investment is not optional for a retiree.

This paper covers the major alternative asset categories relevant to individual investors, the realistic diversification and inflation benefits each provides, the liquidity and fee considerations, and the framework for deciding whether alternatives add value to a specific retirement plan.

Section 2: Real Estate Investment Trusts

What REITs Are

Real Estate Investment Trusts are companies that own income-producing real estate, from apartment complexes and office buildings to data centers and cell towers. REITs are required by law to distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to shareholders annually, which produces relatively high dividend yields. They trade on public exchanges with the same daily liquidity as common stocks.

REITs occupy a hybrid space between stocks and bonds. They provide equity-like returns over long periods through a combination of dividends and property appreciation, but they also carry equity-level volatility and decline significantly in bear markets. In 2022, the REIT index declined over 25%, while REITs had previously declined over 40% in the 2008-2009 financial crisis. They are not a defensive asset class.

REIT Diversification Benefits

The correlation between REITs and the broader stock market has increased significantly over the past two decades as REITs have become more widely held by institutional investors and index fund managers. The diversification benefit that REITs provided in the 1990s, when they were less correlated with broad equities, has diminished. REITs today behave much more like the stock market than like a separate asset class, particularly during periods of market stress when correlations tend to converge.

Real estate does provide meaningful inflation sensitivity over long periods, as property values and rents tend to rise with inflation over time. This makes REITs a potentially useful inflation hedge in a long-horizon retirement portfolio, even if the near-term volatility is comparable to equities.

Section 3: Private Credit and Business Development Companies

Private Credit Overview

Private credit encompasses loans made directly to businesses outside the public bond market. Business development companies are publicly registered investment companies that primarily make loans to, or equity investments in, private middle-market businesses. They are required to distribute most of their income to shareholders, producing high yields.

BDCs provide exposure to private credit with relatively accessible minimums and quarterly or daily liquidity for most public BDCs. The trade-off is that private credit carries more credit risk than investment-grade bonds, higher fees than most bond funds, and exposure to the specific companies in the portfolio, which are often smaller, more leveraged businesses than those in public debt markets.

Interval Funds and Semi-Liquid Alternatives

Many alternative investment strategies are now available through interval funds, which offer periodic liquidity, typically quarterly, rather than daily redemption. Interval funds invest in illiquid strategies including private credit, real estate, infrastructure, and other assets that don't have daily market prices. They provide access to returns that were previously available only to institutions, but with significant liquidity restrictions.

For retirees, interval fund liquidity terms deserve careful scrutiny. A fund that allows quarterly redemptions of 5% of assets may not be able to process a redemption request quickly if the fund is facing high redemption demands simultaneously. The liquidity available during normal markets may not be available during the stressed markets when liquidity is most needed.

Section 4: Commodities and Real Assets

Commodities as Inflation Hedges

Commodities, including energy, agricultural products, and metals, have historically provided inflation protection over long periods. When consumer prices rise, commodity prices often rise alongside them, partially because commodities are inputs into the prices of many consumer goods and services. Gold has a long history as a store of value during periods of currency debasement and inflation.

However, commodity returns over long periods have been volatile and inconsistent. A broad commodity index returned very little over the decade from 2012 to 2022, before surging sharply in 2022 due to supply disruptions. The inflation hedging benefit is real but arrives episodically rather than smoothly, and commodities generate no income while they wait for inflationary periods.

Infrastructure

Infrastructure investments, in airports, toll roads, pipelines, utilities, and similar assets, provide exposure to long-duration, inflation-linked cash flows from assets that are often regulated or essential. Infrastructure has historically shown lower correlation with equities than REITs and lower volatility, making it a more genuine diversifier in theory.

Public infrastructure exposure is available through dedicated ETFs and closed-end funds. Private infrastructure, accessed through limited partnership structures, is available to accredited investors and provides more direct exposure but with multi-year lockups and high minimum investments.

Section 5: What the Research Says

Ibbotson on Alternative Diversification

Roger Ibbotson and colleagues have produced research on alternative asset class inclusion in diversified portfolios, examining the correlation and return characteristics of various alternatives over long periods. Their work generally supports the inclusion of alternatives with genuinely low correlation to public equities, while noting that the correlation benefits often diminish during market stress periods when diversification is most needed.

CFA Institute Research on Private Markets

The CFA Institute has published research examining the reported returns of private market investments, including private equity, private credit, and private real estate. Their analysis highlights the challenge of performance measurement in private markets, where appraisal-based valuations can smooth reported returns and obscure the true volatility of the underlying assets. Investors who compare private market reported returns to public market returns may be comparing apples to oranges.

Vanguard on the Case for and Against Alternatives

Vanguard has published balanced analysis on alternative investments, acknowledging the theoretical diversification and inflation protection arguments while noting the practical limitations including higher fees, less transparency, reduced liquidity, and the mixed historical evidence on whether alternatives have actually delivered on their theoretical benefits for individual investors. Their research is one of the more intellectually honest treatments of this topic from a major investment firm.

Section 6: The Common Mistakes

Mistake One: Confusing Category Diversification With Risk Reduction

Holding REITs, commodities, private credit, and international stocks alongside domestic stocks may look like diversification, but if these assets are all correlated with market risk during downturns, the apparent diversification provides less protection than it appears. True diversification reduces portfolio volatility. Category proliferation that doesn't reduce correlation during stress periods is not genuine diversification.

Mistake Two: Underestimating Fee Layers in Alternative Products

Alternative investment products frequently carry multiple fee layers: management fees, performance fees, fund-of-fund expenses, platform fees, and transaction costs. The total cost of accessing a private credit strategy through an interval fund can easily reach 2% to 3% annually, which must be overcome before any return benefit is realized. For a retirement portfolio where 0.5% differences in fees have compounding impact over decades, the fee structure of alternative investments deserves rigorous scrutiny.

Mistake Three: Ignoring Liquidity Risk for Retirees

A retiree who holds 30% of the portfolio in illiquid or semi-liquid alternatives faces a structural problem during a market downturn: the liquid portion of the portfolio must fund all withdrawals, potentially depleting the liquid assets at accelerated rates while the illiquid positions cannot be accessed. Liquidity requirements in retirement are higher than during accumulation, and the alternative allocation should reflect that.

Section 6: Questions to Ask Your Advisor

Question 1: What specific alternatives are in my portfolio, and what role does each play in the overall allocation?

This establishes whether the alternatives have a defined purpose or were added without a clear rationale.

Question 2: What is the total annual cost of each alternative holding, including all fee layers?

All-in cost transparency is essential for evaluating whether the expected benefit justifies the cost.

Question 3: What are the liquidity terms for each alternative position, and how do they affect my ability to fund withdrawals during a market downturn?

This directly addresses the retirement-specific liquidity concern.

Question 4: How have these alternatives actually performed relative to the diversification and inflation benefits they were expected to provide?

Historical performance review keeps the allocation grounded in evidence rather than marketing claims.

Question 5: What fraction of my portfolio in alternatives is still appropriate given my current income needs and remaining planning horizon?

As the planning horizon shortens and income needs become more immediate, the appropriate alternative allocation typically decreases.

Section 9: Use the Calculator

The retirement planning calculator at plan.johnkoyle.com was built to model exactly the dynamics discussed in this paper. Alternative investments in your portfolio affect the Gross Annual Return and volatility assumptions that drive the Monte Carlo simulation in the retirement calculator at plan.johnkoyle.com. When modeling a portfolio with significant alternatives, work with your advisor to determine appropriate blended return and standard deviation assumptions that reflect the actual characteristics of your holdings, including the fee drag that reduces net returns from alternatives. The simulation will then reflect a realistic picture of how the alternatives-inclusive portfolio performs across the range of possible return sequences.

Run your own numbers at plan.johnkoyle.com

Section 10: About John Koyle, AIF®

John Koyle, AIF®, is the Co-Founder of Red Cedar Wealth Advisors, headquartered in Pocatello, Idaho. He holds the Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF®) designation, awarded by the Center for Fiduciary Studies (Fi360), which signifies completed coursework, a rigorous examination, and ongoing continuing education in fiduciary responsibility and prudent investment practices.

John serves individuals and families in or approaching retirement throughout eastern Idaho, the Pacific Northwest, and across the country via Zoom. Clients work directly with John, not a junior team. Red Cedar Wealth Advisors operates under Osaic Wealth, Inc. (Member FINRA/SIPC) and Osaic Advisory Services, LLC for investment advisory services.

The Five Disciplines. One Foundation.

Every client relationship is built on five integrated disciplines. The proportions shift with the client and the moment. The integration is constant. Most of the actual value sits in how these disciplines connect, not in any single one of them.

Retirement Sustainability

Retirement planning is a discipline that barely existed a generation ago. For most of modern history, people worked until they physically couldn't and then they died, usually fairly close together. The idea that an individual should spend decades saving, then spend decades drawing down those savings, with a plan that accounts for inflation, taxation, sequence risk, healthcare, longevity, and estate transfer, that's maybe forty years old.

Which means almost nobody your age grew up watching their parents do it properly. There's no cultural muscle memory. The advice industry backfilled that gap with rules of thumb that work sometimes and fail catastrophically the rest of the time. The 4% rule. 'You can take Social Security at 62.' 'Target-date funds will handle it.' These are not bad starting points. They are terrible ending points. Real planning is specific, personal, and built on principles that hold up across the full range of outcomes, not just the average one.

Tax Efficiency

The tax code is a set of instructions Congress wrote to shape behavior. Aligning your financial life with those instructions is not aggressive planning. It is the planning. Roth conversion sequencing, capital gains compression on concentrated positions, charitable remainder trusts, Social Security timing, beneficiary coordination. None of these are obscure. They're all legitimate, all written into the code intentionally, and all under-used. Most CPAs handle compliance. The strategy work is a different discipline entirely.

Wealth Transfer

Seventy percent of family wealth doesn't survive two generations. The reason isn't bad markets. The cause is failure to communicate, outdated documents, and no plan for preparing heirs. Beneficiary designations regularly override well-crafted wills. Trust structures created a decade ago no longer match current law or current family. The portfolio that built the wealth isn't the structure that transfers it. The work here is coordinating with your attorney to align documents, beneficiaries, gifting strategies, and trust funding with what you actually want to happen.

Portfolio Performance

Every week, before any portfolio decision, John runs through four layers of market health: economic conditions, market internals, valuations, and sentiment. Each layer gets scored and those scores combine into a composite that maps directly to a portfolio posture, from aggressive on the positive end to defensive on the negative. The work is in the scoring. Once the scoring is done, the positioning follows. That removes one of the most dangerous things in investing: making it up as you go.

Risk Management

The protection gap quietly kills more plans than markets do. A significant net worth paired with inadequate liability coverage is a lawsuit away from a serious problem. Long-term care is more acute: a multi-year care event for one spouse can consume what was meant for the survivor. Most advisors relegate risk to a footnote because insurance conversations are uncomfortable. The math doesn't care. Coverage adequacy, umbrella sizing, long-term care planning, and life insurance structure sit alongside the portfolio in any complete plan.

Six Beliefs

These are the principles behind every plan John builds.

01. Sequence risk often kills more plans than return assumptions do. The order of returns matters more than the average. Two retirees with identical 7% average returns can end up in completely different places depending on when those returns arrive. A bad first decade of retirement can end a plan that would have worked fine with the same average distributed differently.
02. Price determines return. The decade you start in is most of the story. Buy stocks at a CAPE of 10 and you get a good decade. Buy them at 35 and you get a decade of treading water. Starting valuation is the single best predictor of 10-year returns, better than any forecaster, any guru, or any fund manager.
03. The best Roth conversion year is the one you almost didn't do. The years between retirement and required minimum distributions are often the lowest-income window of a lifetime. Missing that window costs hundreds of thousands of dollars in lifetime taxes. Most people miss it because it feels optional. It isn't.
04. Concentration builds wealth. Diversification protects it. Most wealth gets built through concentration in one thing done well. A business. A career. A property. Keeping wealth requires the opposite discipline. The same concentration that made you rich will unmake you if you don't rotate out of it.
05. The surviving spouse moves to single filing. Same income, higher bracket. Married filing jointly has wider brackets than single. When the first spouse passes, the survivor keeps most of the income and loses half the brackets. This is the widow's tax trap, and it's one of the most under-planned events in retirement.
06. A process you follow beats a hunch you got right once. Everybody's a genius in a bull market. The work of a real advisor shows up in the years nobody remembers fondly. A process is what keeps you from confusing a long bull run with actual skill. It's also what keeps you invested when everything in your body wants to sell at the bottom.

To begin a conversation, visit johnkoyle.com, use the retirement planning calculator at plan.johnkoyle.com, or reach John directly at john@redcedarwealth.com or (208) 915-8400. Initial consultations are complimentary and carry no obligation.

Alternative Asset Liquidity Spectrum
Most liquid: Exchange-traded REITs, commodity ETFs (daily) | Semi-liquid: Interval funds, BDCs (quarterly) | Less liquid: Tender offer funds (annual or less) | Illiquid: Direct real estate, private equity, direct private credit (years)
References
Sources cited throughout this paper are provided for educational context and verification. Inclusion of any third-party source does not imply endorsement by John Koyle or Red Cedar Wealth Advisors. Readers are encouraged to consult primary sources directly.
Important Disclosures
This white paper is published by John Koyle and Red Cedar Wealth Advisors for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing in this paper should be construed as a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, or to adopt any particular investment or tax strategy.
Tax laws are complex and subject to change. The references to federal tax brackets, contribution limits, retirement plan rules, Social Security provisions, Medicare premium thresholds, and other regulatory figures reflect the legal landscape as understood at the time of writing and may change. Clients should consult their own tax and legal professionals before acting on any strategy discussed.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. No content in this paper is a prediction or projection of future performance.
References to third-party sources, studies, authors, and institutions are provided for context and verification; their inclusion does not imply endorsement, and neither John Koyle nor Red Cedar Wealth Advisors is responsible for the content of third-party materials.
Hypothetical examples contained in this paper are for illustrative purposes only. They do not represent the results of any specific investment and should not be interpreted as projections or predictions of future outcomes.
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Securities and investment advisory services are offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are also offered through Osaic Advisory Services, LLC. Osaic Wealth and Osaic Advisory Services are separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products, or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth and Osaic Advisory Services.
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Contact Information
John Koyle, AIF® | Red Cedar Wealth Advisors | Pocatello, Idaho